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☆ Wall Street is confused and divided over how many times the Fed will cut rates this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street reacted Thursday to this week's Fed meeting, with forecasts scattered across a range of outcomes for where monetary policy heads next. Most economists for the biggest forecasting firms expect the central bank to lower benchmark interest rates sometime later this year. Goldman left in place its call for two rate cuts this year of a quarter percentage point each, with one in July and the other in November. "If inflation comes in stronger than in our baseline, we would expect the first rate cut to be postponed to December," he wrote. For 2025, we continue to expect four rate cuts."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Powell, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Marc Giannoni, Michael Gapen, Michael Bloom Organizations: Fed, Futures, Group, Citigroup, Barclays, Bank of America

☆ U.S. Growth Slowed in First Quarter, but Inflation Remained a Bug
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The U.S. economy remained resilient early this year, with a strong job market fueling robust consumer spending. The trouble is that inflation was resilient, too. Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. That was down sharply from the 3.4 percent growth rate at the end of 2023 and fell well short of forecasters’ expectations. “It would suggest some moderation in growth but still a solid economy,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America.

Persons: ”, Michael Gapen Organizations: Gross, Commerce Department, Bank of America Locations: U.S

☆ The inflation fight has stalled and the first rate cut won't happen until December, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of America pushed back its forecast for the first rate cut of 2024 from June to December. The re-acceleration of inflation means markets should expect just a single 25 basis-point cut this year. AdvertisementThe recent string of unexpectedly high inflation readings has led Bank of America to push back its forecast for the first rate-cut of 2024 from June to December. Moreover, unfavorable base effects mean year-over-year core PCE inflation will probably not decline further between the June and September meetings," the note said. This would mean one-25bp rate cut this year, instead of our previous forecast of 75bp in rate cuts," analysts added.

Persons: —, Michael Gapen, Goldman Sachs, Larry Summers Organizations: of America, Service, Bank of America, RBC, US

☆ A bigger pool of American workers could continue to slow inflation even further
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Now, as the Federal Reserve faces the final stretch of its historic inflation battle, a bigger pool of workers could slow inflation even further. That then begs the question: How much more can better labor supply slow inflation? The US Labor Department releases January figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended March 2. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases February inflation data.

Persons: Mary Daly, “, ” Sarah House, Michael Gapen, That’s, Jack Bantock, ’, ”, Richard Felton, Thomas, ’ ”, Patrick Harker, Ross, Nordstrom, Michael Barr, Campbell Soup, Foot, Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, National Association for Business Economics, Labor, CNN, Bank of America, White House’s Council, Economic Advisers, English Premier League, Chelsea, Burnley, Philadelphia Fed, Target, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, US Commerce Department, Abercrombie, Fitch, Financial Services, The Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Broadcom, Costco, Eagle Outfitters, Potbelly, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, European Central Bank, Cleveland Fed, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, San, Wells, United States, London, JD.com, Kroger, Burlington, DocuSign

☆ Jobs data show little sign of impending slodown in activity: BofA's Michael Gapen
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJobs data show little sign of impending slodown in activity: BofA's Michael GapenMichael Gapen, head of U.S. economics at BofA Securities, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss January labor statistics, the timeline for Fed rate cuts, and more.

Persons: Michael Gapen Michael Gapen, Steve Liesman Organizations: BofA Securities

☆ Wall Street has adjusted its expectations for when the Fed starts cutting rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Traders have moved out the probability of a March easing from around 90% in recent weeks to a coin-flip in the days leading up to this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting to about a 1-in-3 chance Thursday. That's not to say the market still doesn't think the committee will cut rates sharply this year, but any dialing back now probably won't come quite as soon as expected. For the most part, Wall Street commentary showed an expectation that the Fed will cut at least four times this year, likely beginning in either May or June. "As inflation falls, real rates become more restrictive, and we think gaining consensus to cut will be easier." Most of Wall Street expects the FOMC to skip November, as the meeting falls the same week as the U.S. presidential election.

Persons: Jerome Powell, That's, Matthew Luzzetti, FOMC, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Powell, David Mericle, Michael Gapen, Marc Giannoni, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Traders, Deutsche Bank, Dow Jones, Fed, Wall, U.S, Bank of America, Barclays

Since June, the quarterly "dot plot" of policymakers' projections of the appropriate path of policy has shown rates rising another quarter point this year. Investors will be eager for the boost a rate cut would give to markets, and consumers will be relieved by lower mortgage and credit rates. Indeed, in remarks last week Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that over the last six months inflation had averaged around 2.5%. Investors, meanwhile, have become increasingly fixed on March as a starting point for rate cuts. Between falling inflation and a modest slowdown in growth, Powell said: "We are getting what we wanted to get."

Persons: Vincent Reinhart, Dreyfus, Reinhart, Donald Trump, Michael Gapen, Gapen, Jerome Powell, Powell, Christopher Waller, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal Reserve, Mellon, WE, Republican, Bank of America, Fed, Spelman College, Thomson Locations: U.S, Atlanta

☆ A soft landing for the economy is expected, says BofA's Michael Gapen
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA soft landing for the economy is expected, says BofA's Michael GapenMichael Gapen, head of U.S. economics at BofA Securities, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the trajectory of the economy, the Fed's interest rate outlook, and more.

Persons: BofA's Michael Gapen Michael Gapen Organizations: BofA Securities

☆ Interest rate cuts are coming next year, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America predicted the Fed will cut interest rates in the middle of 2024. Still, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is not considering rate cuts right now. As Insider previously reported, the point at which experts predict interest rate cuts are coming in the US vary. When it comes to the Federal Reserve itself, it doesn't think interest rate cuts should be top of Americans' minds right now. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the November press conference following the central bank's announcement to continue its pause on rate hikes that he's "not talking about rate cuts."

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, Candace Browning, Michael Gapen, Powell Organizations: of America, Service, Bank of America, BofA Global Research, UBS, Fed, Vanguard, Federal Reserve

WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday with officials widely expected to keep interest rates on hold for now, but also flagging in new economic projections whether they feel rates still need to rise further before the end of the year. A new policy statement and interest rate decision will be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) on Wednesday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. to elaborate. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsIn June the Fed paused, but the quarterly economic projections accompanying that decision showed 12 of 18 policymakers still anticipated two more quarter-point rate increases by the end of the year. But how fast and when that occurs remains a matter of debate within the Fed and depends on how fast inflation falls. But it may mean rates stay higher for longer than the public currently expects.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Morgan, Michael Feroli, Feroli, Powell, Michael Gapen, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Bank of America, Thomson Locations: synch

"We now forecast a mild recession in the U.S. economy this year ... In May and June, the Fed staff projections "continued to assume" the U.S. economy would be in recession by the end of the year. Fed policymakers' projections, which are issued on a quarterly basis, never showed GDP contracting on an annual basis. 'CHUGGING ALONG'What made the difference between an in-the-moment recession that many thought was underway last year to growth that has surprised to the upside? An Atlanta Fed GDP "nowcast" puts output growth for the current July-September period at 5.0%, showing continued strong momentum.

Persons: Biden, Michael Gapen, Gapen, Jerome Powell, Powell, Sharif, We've, Sal Guatieri, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Bank of America, Fed, Reuters, Valley Bank, Atlanta Fed, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, California

☆ A former BlackRock stock chief shares 3 indicators that tell him it's too early to abandon his recession call despite the economy's strength — and warns the stock market's rally is doomed for a revers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The inverted yield curve and The Conference Board's LEI are two indicators that inform his view. Instead, investors should be paying attention to indicators like the Treasury yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and money growth. Here's the yield curve. And the start of a recession typically comes a bunch of of months after the yield curve inverts. The yield curve didn't invert until less than a year ago.

Persons: Bob Doll, LEI, Doll, Wall, — Bank of America's Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli —, we're, Louis, It's, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Greg Boutle, Tom Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, — Bank of America's, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Fed, Louis Investors, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, BNP, Institute for Supply, Institute for Supply Management, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wells

☆ Not everyone is convinced the US will avoid a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN —The case for no US recession is building, but some on Wall Street are cautioning against getting overconfident. That has raised hopes among investors that the United States could avoid a recession despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive pace of interest rate hikes. Still, some investors are maintaining that the US economy could tip into a recession later this year. The index of leading economic indicators is just kind of at an extreme rating. One of the reasons for the rise in equity valuations in recent weeks was the pricing out of recession or economic weakness.

Persons: Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli, ”, Bell, David Donabedian, we’ve, There’s, Catherine Thorbecke, Danielle Romain, Romain, Read, Uno Mattel, Uno Quatro, Ellie Stevens, “ We’re, Ray Adler Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase’s, CIBC Private Wealth, Fitch, Google, Trust, Mattel, Uno Locations: New York, United States, New York City

☆ Asia shares on guard for US, China inflation risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> was a fraction firmer in thin trade, after losing 2.3% last week. Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) eased 0.7% with investors still disappointed at the lack of major and concrete stimulus steps from Beijing. Going the other way, S&P 500 futures added 0.4% and Nasdaq futures 0.5%. In China, the market is looking for further signs of deflation with annual consumer prices seen down around 0.5%, and producer prices falling 4%. Futures imply only a 12% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, and 24% for a rise by year-end.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Walt Disney, Goldman Sachs, Michael Gapen, Brent, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Yen, REUTERS, Nikkei, SYDNEY, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Nasdaq, News Corp, Goldman, Federal, Fed, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Beijing, Ukraine

☆ What to expect from the jobs report: Steady, but cooler growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

But markets and economists are expecting another solid jobs report Friday morning. And while economic data isn’t typically the sexiest of topics, the government’s jobs report has in recent months delivered plenty of excitement and its fair share of surprises. Last July, for example, the US economy added 568,000 jobs — more than double the 250,000 that economists had expected. Come Friday, the government’s jobs report for this July might not end up being quite so shocking. In fact, it could be relatively humdrum: A slight cooling in job growth, and unemployment holding steady.

Persons: Minneapolis CNN — Fitch, ”, Daniel Zhao, Refinitiv, Chris Rupkey, That’s, Michael Gapen, Janet Yellen, Glassdoor’s Zhao, ” Zhao, there’s, ” Andy Challenger, Challenger, ” Gus Faucher, they’re, Becky Frankiewicz, “ Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Glassdoor, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, Business, Conference Board, Fitch, Challenger, “ Companies, Labor Department, “, PNC Financial Services Group, CNN, Labor Statistics, BLS, “ Employers, ManpowerGroup Locations: Minneapolis, United States

☆ What to expect from the July jobs report: Steady, but cooler growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Minneapolis CNN —Despite Tuesday’s credit rating downgrade amid concerns about the challenges facing the United States, markets and economists are expecting another solid jobs report on Friday. And while economic data isn’t typically the sexiest of topics, the monthly jobs report has in recent months delivered plenty of excitement and its fair share of surprises. Come Friday, the government’s jobs report for this July might not end up being quite so shocking. In fact, it could be relatively humdrum: A slight cooling in job growth, and unemployment holding steady. The broader economic scorecard for the United States makes the downgrade all the more “bizarre” and puzzling, noted top economists, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Persons: ”, Daniel Zhao, Refinitiv, Chris Rupkey, That’s, Michael Gapen, Janet Yellen, Glassdoor’s Zhao, ” Zhao, there’s, ” Andy Challenger, Challenger, Gus Faucher, they’re, Becky Frankiewicz, “ Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Glassdoor, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, Fitch, Challenger, “ Companies, PNC Financial Services Group, CNN, Labor Statistics, BLS, “ Employers, ManpowerGroup Locations: Minneapolis, United States

☆ Wage Growth Slowed in Second Quarter, a Sign the Economy is Cooling
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Wage growth, by various measures, has softened in recent months, but inflation has fallen by even more. Workers are better off as a result: Pay, adjusted for inflation, rose in the second quarter for the first time in two years. The slowdown in wage growth has surprised some economists because the unemployment rate remains very low, which ordinarily would put pressure on companies to raise pay to attract and retain workers. But other evidence suggests that the labor market has softened even without a big increase in joblessness. Employers are posting fewer job openings, are adding fewer new jobs and are poaching fewer employees from competitors, all signs that demand for workers has slowed.

Persons: ”, Beth Ann Bovino, Michael Gapen Organizations: Workers, “, U.S . Bank, Fed, Bank of America Locations: joblessness

☆ The Federal Reserve just hiked interest rates to their highest level in 22 years. Here's how Wall Street is reacting, where the pros think investors should be putting their money, and why inflation is
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The Federal Reserve hiked rates in July, and it could be the final rate hike of the cycle. But while the latest rate hike was all but certain, there are still plenty of questions about what lies ahead. In a note from Wednesday evening, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius pointed out that Powell made it clear any further hikes will depend on inflation data. But Bank of America analysts led by US economist Michael Gapen remain unconvinced that the rate hike cycle is truly over. As for equities, Wall Street widely expected this week's rate hike, so there are no major changes to their second-half investing recommendations.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Henry Allen, shouldn't, Allen, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Powell, Hatzius, Gurpreet Gill, Gill, Peter Hooper, Michael Gapen, Gapen, Goldman's Gill, America's Gapen, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson Organizations: Federal, shouldn't, Deutsche Bank, Fed, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Bank of America, Bank, America's Locations: Wall

☆ U.S. Economy Grew at 2.4% Rate in Second Quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Instead, layoffs were mostly contained to a handful of industries, the banking crisis did not spread and even the housing market has begun to stabilize. “The things we were all freaked out about earlier this year all went away,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said on Wednesday that the central bank’s staff economists no longer expected a recession to begin this year. Still, many economists say consumers are likely to pull back their spending in the second half of the year, putting a drag on the recovery. And although unemployment remains low, job growth and wage growth have slowed.

Persons: ”, Michael Gapen, Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Tech, Bank of America, Fed, Savings

☆ Fake Rolex watches make up half of the luxury replica market, exec says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Half of replica watches are Rolex replicas, according to Watchfinder's CEO. The exec told Bloomberg that the brand sees the highest demand on replica markets. Meanwhile, prices for luxury watches have fallen near two-year lows on secondary markets. The replica watch market is getting more and more sophisticated, and roughly half the market is comprised of Rolex fakes, according to the chief executive of Watchfinder & Co. "You see replica or clone watches — very, very high quality watches — of virtually all of the big luxury brands," van de Vall told Bloomberg.

Persons: Arjen van de Vall, van de Vall, it's, Joe Biden, Michael Gapen Organizations: Bloomberg, Morning, Rolex, Watchfinder, JPMorgan, Bank, America's Locations: Swiss

☆ Bank of America's top stock picks for the third quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America is out with its latest short-term stock picks as the third trading quarter of the year gets underway. "Over the last quarter, the BofA Macro view has evolved," strategist Anthony Cassamassino wrote in a note Monday. Bank of America gathered its 10 best ideas for the new quarter, all of them buy-rated, Cassamassino said. The bank also sees multiple growth drivers this year and improvements in merchandise margins as cost inflation and freight expenses normalize. Its $135 price target on the stock is more than 50% above its closing price Friday.

Persons: Anthony Cassamassino, Savita Subramanian, Michael Hartnett, Michael Gapen, Stephen Suttmeier, Cassamassino, it's, Lamb Weston, Wells, defensibility Organizations: of America, U.S, Our U.S . Economist, " Bank of America, Body, Bank of America, Disney, Wells Fargo Locations: Our

☆ The global economy is slowing down. Just look at the luxury watch market.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Prices for luxury watch brands like Rolex and Patek Philippe have fallen near two-year lows on secondary markets. Bloomberg's Subdial Watch Index has dropped about 19% in the last 12 months. Bloomberg's Subdial Watch Index, which tracks the 50 most-traded pre-owned watches, has fallen roughly 19% over the last 12 months. Meanwhile, the Patek Philippe Nautilus Travel Time has fallen 28%, and the Rolex Daytona 116506 has dropped 25%. President Joe Biden reiterated this week that he doesn't anticipate a recession, but Wall Street firms aren't so sure.

Persons: Patek Philippe, —, Philippe, Jerome Powell, Joe Biden, Michael Gapen Organizations: Rolex, Service, Bloomberg, Philippe Nautilus, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Bank, America's

☆ We see two more Fed rate hikes in July and September, says BofA's Michael Gapen
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe see two more Fed rate hikes in July and September, says BofA's Michael GapenMichael Gapen, BofA head of U.S. economics, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest economic data, the Fed's rate hike campaign, and more.

Persons: BofA's Michael Gapen Michael Gapen

☆ Just days after pausing rate hikes, Fed official calls for more increases
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington, DC CNN —The dust has barely settled on the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its aggressive rate-hiking campaign — but in public appearances Friday, central bank officials have a clear message: Keep hiking. In one of the first speeches, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that additional rate increases are necessary to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% target. The Fed’s decision to restart hikes depends on what data show in the coming weeks and months. It is the job of bank leaders to deal with interest rate risk and nearly all bank leaders have done exactly that,” Waller said. A representative of the event said the conference wasn’t being recorded and that only registrants who paid a fee were able to attend.

Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, ”, Gregory Daco, Ernst & Young, ” Powell, Waller, “, Michael Gapen, Gapen, they’re, Louis President James Bullard, Thomas Barkin Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Norges Bank, International Monetary Fund, Ernst &, Bank, BofA Global Research, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Maryland Government Finance, Association Locations: Washington, Oslo, Norway, ”

☆ The economy will move into 2024 without any downturn, says BofA's Michael Gapen
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe economy will move into 2024 without any downturn, says BofA's Michael GapenMichael Gapen, Bank of America Research head of U.S. economist, and Keith Fitz-Gerald, principal at the Fitz-Gerald Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's pause and next move.

Persons: BofA's Michael Gapen Michael Gapen, Keith Fitz, Gerald, Gerald Group Organizations: Bank of America Research

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